The landscape of European higher education, and of European business schools, is changing radically. We estimate that, depending on participation and completion rates, between 1.5 and 2 million Europeans will graduate annually with Bachelors degrees once Bologna has been fully implemented.
To adapt to the new landscape, universities are presently designing a whole range of Masters programmes to attract these graduates. Some schools expect that the graduates will simply continue at their home institutions in their original subjects to ultimately graduate, as they would have in the past, with a Masters degree. Other schools are more sophisticated. By benchmarking the Anglo American system, they realise that Masters programmes are predominantly selected by students to further their career goals and that programmes must be well designed in order to attract students. Estimates vary wildly on what graduates will do.
Traditional universities expect that over 80% of Bachelors graduates will simply stay put and do a pre-experience Masters. Those that benchmark the Anglo-American system, however, see that US and UK participation rates for pre- and post-experience Masters combined are in the 25% range, and understand that competition for students will be fierce and sophisticated marketing will be needed.
Nowhere is this restructuring more evident and more significant than in business studies.
All universities that previously had delivered integrated 5 year business degrees are now launching pre-experience Masters programmes. These programmes are seeking to retain home students, but also attract graduates from elsewhere. Naming conventions are unclear. Some of these programmes are being called Master of Science programmes, others Master of Arts, and, confusingly, in both France on the basis of individual school actions, and in Germany through legislative permission, some are misleadingly being called MBAs.
Some of these programmes are within state subsidy systems, and thus will have insignificant tuition fees. Others have begun to charge non EU students fees of over 10,000 euros annually. Conservatively, we estimate that 12,000 new business and economics Masters programmes will be launched in the forthcoming years, and these programmes will attract many students annually. Should the Anglo-American experience of 20% of Bachelors graduates continue through to a Masters programme, then approximately 100,000 students will sign up for pre-experience programmes, and 30,000 students will pursue MBAs. Should 80% of students continue their studies as many continental schools expect, then 500,000 students will be attending pre-experience Master's programmes.
There is a further factor which also comes into the equation. Under the old continental European model, education was not particularly attractive for international students. Educational systems were country specific and the first degrees were comparable to an uninterrupted 5 year Masters degree. Additionally, programmes tended to be offered in local languages.
The implementation of Bologna addresses this issue by clearly defining both Bachelors and Masters programmes. Additionally, countries are opting, at Masters level in many cases, and at Bachelors level in some countries, to offer programmes in English. These changes are geared to facilitate inter-European mobility, but they also make it possible for a whole range of programmes to attract students from beyond Europe.
At present, 1.9 million students study outside of their home countries. These students come primarily from rapidly developing markets like China and India, and go, primarily to the major English-speaking destination countries: 30% to the US and 15% to the UK. In the UK, Business and Management courses are the most popular choice for overseas students representing 25 % at the Masters level.
This is big business. International students contribute $13 Billion to the US economy annually. In the UK, 7% of the higher education budget is accounted for by the ?1.25 Billion contributed by international students.
The final challenge to the status quo in the business of education is the emergence of ambitious universities in those same traditionally student exporting countries. China and India have both announced ambitious plans to build their university sectors and to attract international students to them. Earlier this year, the Chronicle of Higher Education noted that China seeks to attract 120,000 foreign students annually, and to retain many more of the Chinese students who may have considered an international education.
The coming together of the changes in the international educational landscape with the introduction of the changes in Europe engendered by the introduction of the Bologna process will have profound influences on the business of education and specifically on the business of business education that cannot be underestimated.